With less than two weeks until Election Day, the 2024 presidential race is as tight and tense as any in recent memory. America’s almost suspiciously divided voters are within the margin of error for a dead tie in many polls, including in the important swing states — although the tide is turning.

Six weeks ago, the picture was quite different. After Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee, her campaign took off like a rocket. The momentum was fueled by excitement over President Joe Biden dropping out of the race and a palpable feeling that something new was on the ballot for the first time since Barack Obama in 2008. Harris selected progressive Minnesota Governor Tim Walz for Vice President, trounced Trump in their only debate, and filled arenas with an energetic campaign focused on looking forward and calling out the weirdness of the MAGA movement.

Now, all the momentum heading into November 5 is in former President Donald Trump’s favor. In most polling aggregates and betting markets, Trump is at least a slight favorite to win reelection. It begs the question: How are Democrats this close to fumbling yet another winnable election against Trump’s MAGA circus?